Goldman Sachs: Emerging markets to outperform on dollar peak – Bloomberg

“Stocks, bonds and currencies from emerging economies stand to reap the rewards of a potential peak in the US dollar,” said analysts at the Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Key quotes

An almost 3% slump in a key gauge of the greenback since a high point in mid-May suggests a rebound in developing markets, which tend to outperform the rest of the world in the months following a cyclical dollar peak, according to Caesar Maasry and Jolene Zhong.

There are other signs of investors returning to emerging markets. A three-times leveraged China stock ETF saw a record volume surge Tuesday and Wednesday, almost six times the daily average. The Indonesian rupiah has advanced around 0.6% this week, touching a one-month high, while the South Korean won and offshore yuan have both gained 1.3%.

Of course, it isn’t a perfect science. Typically emerging-market growth data “bottoms” around a peak in the dollar, and equity valuations often trade at greater discounts to the S&P 500, according to Goldman. Dollar peaks also tend to occur around recessions, the strategists wrote.

Goldman also sees the yen outperforming as US recession risks rise.

Also read: Expect a deep recession to start this quarter or early third quarter