USD/CNY: Yuan weakness in sight – Commerzbank

Economists at Commerzbank are seeing depreciation pressure for the Chinese yuan over the coming year. They forecast USD/CNY at 6.70 and 6.80 by the year-end of 2022 and 2023 respectively.

A weakening bias for CNY

“A strong dollar due to policy tightening is likely to the main theme in the coming years, while China has much smaller room to maneuver which implies a downside risk for the Chinese currency.”

“The policy divergence between PBoC and Fed implies a weakening bias for the Chinese currency.”

“We forecast 6.7 and 6.8 for USD/CNY at year-end of 2022 and 2023 respectively.”