When are the RBA minutes and how might they affect AUD/USD?

Early Tuesday morning in Asia, at 00:30 GMT, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release minutes of the latest monetary policy meeting held during November.

The RBA’s November month monetary policy meeting surprised markets with no changes to the official cash rate (OCR), leaving it at a record low of 0.10%. The board decided to discontinue the target of 10 basis points (bps) for the April 2024 Australian government bond while also extending the bond purchase at the rate of $4 billion a week until at least mid-February 2022.

Although the RBA’s move was initially considered dovish, followed by a downbeat Aussie jobs report, recent unlocks in Australia and upbeat data from the biggest customer China keep the policy hawks hopeful, which in turn highlight today’s Minutes as the key.

Following the RBA Minutes, RBA Governor Philip Lowe is up for a speech around 02:30 AM GMT and will offer details of the Aussie central bank’s next move.

Westpac is on the same line and said,

At 11:30 AEST, 08:30 Singapore time, the RBA’s minutes for the November policy decision will provide more color around the Board’s central view and the risks. But for a more timely update on the bank’s thinking, there will be more interest in the speech by RBA Governor Lowe at 1:30 pm Sydney time, with the hot topic ‘Recent Trends in Inflation’, followed by Q&A.

How could the minutes affect AUD/USD?

AUD/USD fades the two-day rebound from the monthly low ahead of the RBA minutes, pressured around 0.7350 by the press time. In doing so, the Aussie pair struggles amid mixed clues over the Fed rate hike and US stimulus update. Also challenging the AUD/USD moves are the anxiety over the US Retail Sales data after 31-year high inflation figures.

Considering the increasing odds of the Aussie rate hike and firmer yields, RBA policymakers’ readiness to alter the benchmark rate could help the AUD/USD bulls to tighten their grips. However, any strong rejection of the hawkish policy moves, considering the latest economics, could help the pair to drop towards the monthly low surrounding 0.7275.

Technically, a convergence of 100-DMA and 50-DMA, around 0.7360-65 restricts the AUD/USD pair’s bounce off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) level of the August-October uptrend, near 0.7275. Hence, a decisive break of the stated levels becomes necessary for a clear direction. Bearish MACD and steady RSI line suggest the sellers are having an upper hand.

Key Notes

AUD/USD bulls pause around 0.7350 with eyes on RBA Minutes, Governor Lowe

AUD/USD Forecast: Further recoveries depend on the RBA Minutes

About the RBA minutes

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.