When is the Australian employment report and how could it affect AUD/USD?

October month employment statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, up for publishing at 00:30 GMT on Thursday, will be the immediate catalyst for the AUD/USD pair traders. The figures become all the more important as traders will be keen to observe how much employment damages Victoria’s lockdown did amid the coronavirus (COVID-19) resurgence.

Market consensus favors Employment Change to drop to -30.0K from -29.5K on a seasonally adjusted basis whereas the Unemployment Rate is likely to rise from 6.9% to 7.2%. Further, the Participation Rate may also ease from 64.8% to 64.7% during the stated period.

Westpac expects the data to point to economic slowdown while saying,

With Victoria under lockdown during October and payroll data pointing to a broader slowdown in the national recovery, Westpac is looking for employment to fall -30k, close to consensus. If the participation rate eases to 64.74%, then our employment forecast would see the unemployment rate rise from 6.9% to 7.2% (median forecast 7.1%).

TD Securities also follow the suit as they said,

For the October Employment report, we are anticipating the tightening in eligibility criteria to obtain JobKeeper payments is likely to have encouraged employers to shed staff. We pencil in a 50k drop in jobs for the month. Assuming the participation rate drops to 64.7%, this would imply an unemployment rate of 7.2%.

How could the data affect AUD/USD?

Although the RBA repeated turned down the negative rates, while still favoring the increase in the Quantitative Easing (QE), a positive surprise from the employment numbers could help the AUD/USD prices to overcome the 0.7340 resistance marked twice during November. It should, however, be noted that the latest risk-off mood, triggered through the COVID-19 woes and global angst against China, may gain additional support and drag the quote further down in a case where the jobs report disappoints.

However, AUD/USD sellers will remain cautious unless witnessing a clear break below the November 19 low of 0.7220. The reason is that a downside break of which will confirm “double top” formation near 0.7340. Following that, the bears will eye the 100-day SMA around 0.7160 before aiming the theoretical target near 0.7100 round-figures.

Key Notes

AUD/USD drops back to 0.7300 ahead of Aussie employment data

AUD/USD Forecast: Holding on to gains ahead of key employment data

Australian Employment Preview: Labor market recovery in doldrums

About the Employment Change

The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

About the Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate hikes, indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).