EUR/USD: Euro strength may be capped near term, may outperform later – CitiBank

While it may probably be too early to call a bottom at this point in EUR/USD, the medium to longer-term outlook remains bullish on expectations for sufficient stimulus for the global recovery to continue or resume in early 2021, explained analysts at Citibank. 

Key Quotes:

“We expect the ECB to deliver additional accommodation. EUR strength may be capped near term but we think that the implications for the EUR are limited. In medium term EUR may outperform. First, increased fiscal/ current account deficits may eventually generate portfolio balance pressure on $ assets generally over time. Second, Stronger FDI and reserve manager buying in the EA than anticipated.”

“EURUSD breaks below horizontal support at 1.1689-94 after having broken through the 55d MA at 1.1798 and 1.1740. If it follows the 2017 Sept-Oct playbook which would suggest the possibility of a near term move as low as 1.1615 support. While this holds one final leg lower in the days ahead , possibly towards 1.1550-1.1575 would be a danger.”