EUR/CHF: Long-term downtrend at 1.0818 remains exposed – Commerzbank

EUR/CHF remains capped by the 2018-2020 downtrend at 1.0818 and recent high at 1.0838. The pair trades at 1.0767 after reaching a daily high of 1.0784 early Monday. Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, targets the June peak at 1.0915.

Key quotes

“A close above 1.0818/38 is needed to target the 1.0915 June high and the 1.1058 October 2019 high. Currently, we would allow for some further consolidation here, although dips lower remain shallow and the downtrend remains exposed.” 

“Longer-term, we favour a break higher. The market will find initial support at the 1.0712/09 March and June 23 highs and also at the 1.0699 June 30 high. The July low and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0607/1.0593 are regarded as stronger support that is expected to hold.”