Brent Oil to reach $60 by end-2022 – Capital Economics

Economists at Capital Economics expect the price of Brent Crude Oil to rise as high as $60 by the end of 2022 from the current level around $42 despite a slower demand recovery and a slip of OPEC+ cuts.  

Key quotes

“We doubt that the prices of energy commodities will continue to rise quite so rapidly. Any further recovery in oil demand from here is likely to be slower, and as the recent upturn in coronavirus cases in the US suggests, the road will probably be bumpy.” 

“Compliance by OPEC+ with output cuts may start to slip. Even so, we expect the price of Brent crude to rise to $60 per barrel by end-2022, from ~$42 at present.”

“Futures curves for oil markets have flattened considerably. As such, roll returns should not undermine total returns by anywhere near as much from here. Accordingly, we expect the returns from energy commodities to be fairly good over the coming years, broadly matching those from equities.”