2020 GDP to contract by 6% and 7.1% in the US and Canada respectively – NBF

Economists at the National Bank of Canada maintain its 2020 GDP forecasts for the US and Canada as the first half collapse will not be offset by the rebound in the second quarter.

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Key quotes

“While the US economy remains in a delicate situation, with the second quarter witnessing the largest contraction of GDP and employment since the Great Depression, diminished financial stress courtesy of prompt action by the Fed allows for optimism about a second half rebound. But because of a disastrous first half of the year, the annual rate of economic growth is still shaping up to be the worst in the post-war era. We are leaving unchanged our forecast of -6% for 2020 US GDP growth.”  

“While a rebound is likely in the second half of 2020 as more of the economy reopens and firms rebuild inventories, that won’t make up for the first half collapse in economic activity, leaving Canada with the worst annual GDP contraction on records. And that despite unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy stimulus. We are for now leaving unchanged our forecast of -7.1% for Canada’s 2020 GDP growth.”