US Jobless Claims Preview: Job losses decline to keep up dollar's pandemic risk-premium erosion

Initial claims are forecast to fall to 1.8 million from 2.123 million while continuing claims are expected to drop to 20.05 million from 21.052. Meanwhile, the elimination of the USD pandemic risk-premium is expected to continue, FXStreet’s analyst Joseph Trevisani informs.

See: Stocks to continue the advance a few days ahead of NFP

Key quotes

“Initial Jobless Claims are forecast to fall to 1.8 million in the May 29 week, their lowest level since the viral crisis began almost three months ago while Continuing Claims are forecast to fall to 20.050 million.” 

“Equity and currency markets have priced in a sure and perhaps rapid return from the closures that have ravaged the US economy. The Dow and S&P 500 were ahead 2.15% and 1.48% on Wednesday afternoon and are down just 7.89% and 3.2% respectively on the year while the dollar has surrendered all of its risk-aversion premium with all of the major pairs at or close to their pre-crisis levels.”

“If the statistical forerunners of the past two weeks are accurate the trends in equities, bonds and the dollar will continue for the immediate future. [...] It seems that that history may be our best guide after all. The bigger the drop, the higher the bounce.”