UK: Brexit Withdrawal Agreement to pass soon – Deutsche Bank

According to Deutsche Bank analysts, the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement will pass soon, possibly before year-end and the UK will leave the EU by the end of January.

Key Quotes

“The big question is whether Mr Johnson will stand by his commitment to have the transition end on December 31st next year and in reality only have a loose ‘harder’ relationship with the EU or whether he decides to pivot and go for a more ambitious, ‘softer’ relationship that will take time to negotiate and will require an extension to the transition agreement. Difficult to tell at the moment.”

“The big majority allows him to freedom to choose either path. A separate longer-term issue that will bubble in the background is the expected very strong SNP performance in Scotland. The independence issue won’t go away even though the big Tory majority gives little scope for it to come to fruition.”