When are the UK retail sales and how could they affect GBP/USD?

UK Retail Sales Overview

The UK retail sales, scheduled to be published later this session at 0930 GMT, are expected to come in at 0.2% MoM in October, following no growth seen in September. Total retail sales are seen arriving at 3.7% over the year in the reported month, up from 3.1% booked previously.

Meanwhile, core retail sales, stripping the basket off motor fuel sales, are seen steadying at +0.2% MoM while rising 3.4% YoY.

Deviation impact on GBP/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 70 pips in deviations up to 3.5 to -1.5, although in some cases, if notable enough, can fuel movements of up to 100 pips.

How could it affect GBP/USD?

FXStreet’s Analyst Haresh Menghani notes: “Immediate support is pegged near the 1.2820-15 region, marking 61.8% Fibonacci level of the 1.2769-1.2898 recent move up, and is closely followed by the 1.2800 handle. Any subsequent weakness is more likely to remain limited near a short-term descending trend-line resistance breakpoint, currently near the 1.2770-65 region. Failure to defend the mentioned resistance-turned support might turn the pair vulnerable to accelerate the slide back towards testing the 1.2715-10 region. On the flip side, bulls are likely to wait for a sustained move beyond the 1.2900 handle before positioning for a further near-term appreciating move towards 1.2965-70 intermediate resistance.”

Key Notes

GBP Futures: neutral/bearish near term

GBP/USD lingers over trade/political news, UK Retail Sales in focus

Tories offer Nigel Farage eleventh-hour deal – The Telegraph

About the UK Retail Sales

The retail sales released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly per cent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.