UK’s NIESR sees one in ten chance of a UK recession slump

The UK think tank, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) showed in its latest survey, the odds of the UK economy slipping into a recession have dramatically receded despite the looming Brexit uncertainty.

Key Findings:

Despite ongoing turmoil at Westminster over Brexit and a likely general election, forecasters at the NIESR now put the chances of a recession at just 10pc after a much better than expected 0.3pc expansion for the UK economy during the month.

Garry Young, director of macroeconomic modeling and forecasting, put the chances of a recession at one in ten after the "welcome resumption" of growth.

But he warned: "There is a limit to how much further real wages can grow without a pickup in investment and productivity, and this seems unlikely in the near term."