US: Headline CPI likely to pick up to 1.8% YoY – TD Securities

Analysts at TD Securities are looking for the US headline CPI to pick up two tenths to 1.8% y/y (market 1.7%) in July on the back of a solid 0.3% (market 0.3%) monthly print.

Key Quotes

“We expect the non-core segment to be driven by a modest rebound in the energy segment on the back of a 1.5% m/m rise in gasoline prices.”

“Separately, core inflation should remain steady at 2.1% y/y (mkt 2.1%), reflecting a firm 0.2% m/m advance (mkt 0.2%). Core prices should be supported by both a 0.2% m/m increase in core services inflation and new gain in core goods at 0.2%. We anticipate OER to remain largely steady at 0.3% m/m and for the ex-shelter segment to slow marginally on a monthly basis.”