US: Headline inflation likely to tick higher to 2.5% y/y - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that the US October CPI will be closely monitored for signs of moderating inflationary pressures after consecutive misses for core CPI over the last two months.

Key Quotes

“The disappointment in September can be traced to weakness in a few key components, including OER, and we expect a rebound to drive a 0.2% m/m print in the core index for October, which would leave core inflation unchanged at 2.2% y/y, in line with market estimates.”

“We are likewise on consensus for headline and expect inflation to tick higher to 2.5% y/y, reflecting a 0.3% m/m increase.”

“Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to participate in a moderated Q&A after the close at 18:00 ET with Dallas Fed President Kaplan, where they will discuss national and global economic issues.”