US: Real GDP growth to increase solidly by 3.4% in Q3 - Nomura

Research team at Nomura are expecting the US real GDP growth to increase solidly by 3.4% q-o-q saar in Q3, consistent with an economy growing well-above potential.

Key Quotes

“In the details, consumer spending activity has remained strong in Q3, likely contributing roughly 2.5pp to topline GDP growth. Fixed investment in Q3 was likely mixed as modest growth in equipment and IPP investment was partly offset by weakness in residential and structures. Defense spending increased modestly in Q3 as did construction expenditures from state and local governments, helping to keep total government spending elevated during the quarter.”

“The drag from net exports likely increased in Q3 as exports slowed and imports increased notably, although part of this drag will likely be offset by a substantial pickup in inventory investment. That said, the surge in inventory buildup in Q3 could lower Q4 GDP growth.”