UK inflation to ease back in September - HSBC

Analysts at the Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC) offer a brief preview of the upcoming UK inflation data due later today at 0830 GMT.

Key Quotes:

“The August inflation data surprised to the upside - the annual rates of CPI, core CPI and RPI inflation all came in 0.3pp higher than consensus expectations. We think some August price rises resulted from strong demand over the hot summer so could prove temporary. 

We maintain our view that, over the medium term, as inflationary energy and FX effects fade, headline inflation will follow a downward trajectory. 

Indeed, we expect inflation to ease back in September, with the headline and core CPI rates dropping 0.2pp, to 2.5% and 1.9% y-o-y, respectively. We expect the RPI rate to fall by less (0.1pp, to 3.4% y-o-y) as we anticipate a little more pass-through of the August Bank Rate rise onto mortgage interest payments.”