US: Empire State survey to improve modestly in October - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect the US Empire State survey’s general business conditions index to improve modestly to 21.0 in October, up 2pp from September after a sharp 6.6pp decline.

Key Quotes

“Growth remains in firm territory with our Q3 real GDP tracking estimate roughly above 3.5% and resilient incoming data. In addition, the Empire State survey has been somewhat volatile recently, indicating the potential for mean reversion following last month’s sharp decline.”

“There may be some downside risk as a result of the recently-imposed US tariffs on an additional $200bn in imports from China, but the solid economic outlook has so far outweighed any concerns regarding US trade protectionism.”