15 Apr 2014
AUD/USD: 0.9445/50 should prove tough to break - JPMorgan
FXStreet (Bali) - According to JP Morgan FX Strategists, despite the improved tone, the .9450/.9545 resistance in AUD/USD should prove a tough hurdle for a continuation of the short term rally.
Key Quotes
"With the corrective phase above the January low extending higher over the past several weeks, the overall setup for AUD has improved. Still, the next line of important resistance levels should be a more difficult test while potentially defining a short term top."
"Note the recent break above the key .9100/40 resistance zone affirmed the short term upside risks while suggesting the onset of a deeper corrective phase. This area represented the downtrendline from the early- 2013 high and the 200-day moving average (for the first since April ’13)."
"Despite the improved tone, the .9450/.9545 resistance zone should prove to be a tough hurdle for a continuation of the short term rally phase. This area represents the November highs and the 76.4% retracement of the decline from the October peak."
"In line with the current overbought and diverging momentum framework, some consolidation seems likely. Note that the .9140/00 breakout area from late- March will now act as key support maintaining the short term upside risks."
"Alternately, violations would argue for a deeper retracement into the key .8890 March low. Importantly, the setup for the crosses suggests continued outperformance particularly given the breakdowns for EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD from the January-March ranges."
Key Quotes
"With the corrective phase above the January low extending higher over the past several weeks, the overall setup for AUD has improved. Still, the next line of important resistance levels should be a more difficult test while potentially defining a short term top."
"Note the recent break above the key .9100/40 resistance zone affirmed the short term upside risks while suggesting the onset of a deeper corrective phase. This area represented the downtrendline from the early- 2013 high and the 200-day moving average (for the first since April ’13)."
"Despite the improved tone, the .9450/.9545 resistance zone should prove to be a tough hurdle for a continuation of the short term rally phase. This area represents the November highs and the 76.4% retracement of the decline from the October peak."
"In line with the current overbought and diverging momentum framework, some consolidation seems likely. Note that the .9140/00 breakout area from late- March will now act as key support maintaining the short term upside risks."
"Alternately, violations would argue for a deeper retracement into the key .8890 March low. Importantly, the setup for the crosses suggests continued outperformance particularly given the breakdowns for EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD from the January-March ranges."