UK: Headline CPI likely to edge up to 2.6% y/y - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities are looking for UK’s headline CPI to edge up to 2.6% y/y (mkt 2.5%), in line with the BoE's forecast from the August IR.

Key Quotes

“The main catalyst will continue to be higher energy prices, although we also look for rebounds from some of the one-off soft spots in June like clothing and computer games to lift core CPI back up to 2.0% y/y (mkt 1.9%).”

“Barring any further unexpected rally in energy prices, headline CPI is likely to continue gradually moving lower from here, but still remain above the 2.0% target though to the end of 2019.”