Gold Review: Struggles to make it through 100-hour SMA, hangs near YTD lows

   •  A modest USD retracement helped gain some positive traction.
   •  Fading safe-haven demand/Fed rate hike expectations cap gains.

Gold struggled to register any meaningful recovery and remains within striking distance of over 17-month lows, set last Friday.

Spot prices edged higher on Tuesday and recovered a part of previous session's downfall, albeit a combination of diverging forces did little to provide any additional boost and kept a lid on any strong follow-through positive momentum.

A modest US Dollar retracement helped revive demand for the dollar-denominated commodity. The positive factor was largely negated by fading safe-haven demand amid the prevalent positive trading sentiment around equity markets. 

This coupled with firming expectations for gradual Fed rate hike path, reinforced by a goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields, further collaborated towards capping gains for the non-yielding yellow metal. 

Looking at the broader picture, the commodity has been oscillating within a broader trading range over the past four trading sessions. Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a sustained break in either direction before traders start positioning for the near-term trajectory.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the commodity has been facing difficulty in moving back above 100-hour SMA and the inability to register a notable recovery clearly seems to suggest that the near-term selling bias might still be far from over. 

Hence, immediate up-move is likely to face stiff resistance near the $1222-23 region and any subsequent recovery attempts might get sold into near the $1231-33 supply zone. 

On the flip side, a decisive break below the $1206-05 region would mark a fresh bearish breakdown and accelerate the fall towards the $1200 psychological round figure mark before the commodity eventually drops to March 2017 low, around the $1194-93 region.