US: CPI to edge higher to 2.9% y/y in June - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities are on-consensus for June CPI of US and look for inflation to edge higher to 2.9% y/y, with prices up 0.2% m/m.

Key Quotes

“Core inflation should firm to 2.3% from 2.2% on a 0.2% m/m increase, also in line with market expectations. Steel and aluminum tariffs will have little impact on the headline print though higher imported consumer goods prices underpin our expectation for a 0.2% m/m print in the core index.”

“Initial jobless claims will be released alongside CPI and the market consensus is for them to dip to 225k from 231k last week.”

“Fed speak from Kashkari and Harker will round out the event calendar. Kashkari is scheduled to discuss immigration during an 8:30 ET panel discussion while Harker will deliver an economic outlook at 12:15 ET.”