Analysts at BBH noted this week’s central banks meetings in the EM space.

Key Quotes

“National Bank of Hungary meets Tuesday and is expected to keep rates steady at 0.90%. CPI rose 2.0% y/y in March, right at the bottom of the 2-4% target range. As such, there is the possibility that the bank adds more stimulus via unconventional measures”.

“Central Bank of Turkey meets Wednesday and is expected to hike the Late Liquidity rate 50 bp to 13.25%. However, the market is split. Of the 15 analysts polled by Bloomberg, 3 see steady rates, 1 sees a 25 bp hike, 6 see a 50 bp hike, 3 see a 75 bp hike, and 2 see a 100 bp hike. Much will depend on the lira.  If it comes under renewed pressure next week, then a hike becomes more likely”. 

“Central Bank of Russia meets Friday and is expected to keep rates steady at 7.25%. The bank restarted the easing cycle back in 2016, but recent ruble weakness should keep it on hold for the time being. Much will depend on whether the US enacts more sanctions on Russia”. 

“Colombia central bank meets Friday and is expected to cut rates 25 bp to 4.25%. CPI rose 3.1% y/y in March, just above the 3% target and within the 2-4% target range. The central bank is likely nearing the end of its easing cycle, with perhaps one more cut after this to 4.0%”.