US: Consensus is for a 205k February payrolls number – Deutsche Bank

Analysts at Deutsche Bank suggest that the market divert its focus onto this afternoon’s employment report in the US and the consensus is for a 205k February payrolls number, which follows 200k in January.

Key Quotes

“Our economists are slightly below the market at 185k, which they still expect will be enough to drive down the unemployment rate to 4.0% from 4.1% (market also expects a 4.0% reading). Arguably it’s the average hourly earnings print which is the bigger component focus for the market right now given the obsession with inflation. Both the market and our economists forecast a +0.2% mom print (which should lower than annual rate by one-tenth to +2.8% yoy, driven by base effects). Keep an eye on the data due out at 1.30pm GMT.”

“The Fed’s Evans (1.40pm, 3.45pm and 5.45pm GMT) and Rosengren (5.40pm GMT) are both expected to speak on monetary policy and the outlook following the report so that’s worth also keeping an eye on.”