ECB now expected to delay changes to its forward guidance – BBG Survey

The outcome of the latest Bloomberg survey of economists, conducted from 23^rd - 28^th February, showed that a majority of the economists believe that the ECB would keep its forward guidance unchanged at its March 8^th monetary policy meeting.

Key Findings:

“Instead, the analysts surveyed regularly by Bloomberg forecast policy makers to pare back their pledge on asset purchases by June, and to set an end date for the stimulus program by July.

Tweaks to the guidance on interest rates, which currently foresees no change until “well past” the end of bond buying, are only expected by September.

For economists, who previously predicted the ECB to move further along the path toward exiting quantitative easing in March, the upshot is that the central bank may take more time in communicating a wind-down of monetary support.

Net asset purchases are seen continuing at their current pace of 30 billion euros ($37 billion) per month, as planned, respondents said, before being tapered to zero by the end of the year. Proceeds from maturing debt will be reinvested for two years after that.”