When is CAPEx and how could it affect AUD/USD?

In the Asian day ahead, we have two key events taking place for Aussie trading fanatics, Aussie Q4 actual capital expenditure and Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI (Feb), with that survey expected to remain in expansion at 51.2.

Meanwhile, we might find some movement from the main domestic highlight that stays with Q4 actual capital expenditure at 00.30 GMT. The surveys of business investment plans for the remainder of 2017/18,  are in focus (plus first estimate of 2018/19 plans); Generally, traders will look to the forward-looking expenditure plans.

"We look for a 1% q/q, 4% y/y rise in capex, with the unwinding of the mining investment boom largely complete and signs of life in non-mining investment," analysts at Westpac revealed, adding:

"As for investment plans, we caution that the first estimate for any fiscal year is wildly unreliable, so is best ignored. All we can be confident about is that it will be a long way below the 5th estimate of 2017/18, which could be around A$112bn. The intentions by industry will be closely watched. AUD often moves at least a little in response to this report."

How might the data affect AUD/USD?

Higher beta FX was struggling in a risk-off and dollar-friendly environment overnight with the price of the Aussie testing the 200-DMA support that gave way in NY as the DXY ran through towards neckline resistance, 90.60, (yen/stocks weighing n the background). The bias is bearish and selling rallies is preferred. "If we do see a squeeze higher, look to sell at around 0.7815, hoping for a return to 0.7760/70, said Jim Langlands at FX Charts. 

Key notes:

• AUDUSD: Sell @ 0.7815
• AUD/USD analysis: under pressure, 0.7758 at sight
• Forex today: VIX, dollar and yen winners, GBP (hard-Brexit) and higher-betas are losers

About Capex:

The Private Capital Expenditure released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics measures current and future capital expenditure intentions of the private sector. It is considered as an indicator for inflationary pressures. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).