US: Q4 GDP likely to print 2.5% - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura are forecasting a 2.5% q-o-q saar print for the second estimate of US Q4 real GDP growth, implying a 0.1pp downward revision by the BEA from its advance estimate of 2.6%.

Key Quotes

“Incoming data suggest stronger inventory accumulation than what was implied in the BEA’s advance report. Additionally, incoming housing construction data point to stronger real residential investment than the BEA’s assumption from its advance GDP report. However, the January retail sales report included downward revisions to core retail sales. Thus, we expect a decent downward revision in Q4 real PCE in the second Q4 GDP report by the BEA, which could more than offset modest upward revisions in other components of GDP.”