US: What could possibly go wrong? - TDS

Analysts at TDS suggest that despite the length of the recovery and the flattening yield curve, they see only about a 20% chance of a US recession in 2018.

Key Quotes

“Possible triggers include policy mistakes and overdue equity or corporate debt market corrections.”

“Conversely, we see a slightly higher chance that US growth could surprise to the upside, in the event that tax reform and deregulation lead to a sizable boost to 2018 activity. The risk for global markets in this case would be higher US real yields, a stronger USD, and possibly a faster Fed tightening cycle.”