US core CPI in November to increase 0.2% - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect US core CPI in November to increase 0.2% (0.174%) m-o-m, a slight deceleration from October’s 0.225%, but keeping the y-o-y rate unchanged at 1.8% (1.765%).

Key Quotes

“For November, core goods prices likely increased modestly, supported by another increase in used vehicle prices partly boosted by hurricane-related demand. In addition, the recent stabilization of import prices likely contributed to a flattening out of other core goods prices after recent declines. Core service prices likely increased steadily, albeit at a slightly slower pace than October. A solid increase in rent inflation combined with a modest uptick in medical care prices likely contributed to a moderate increase in core service prices.”

“For noncore components, food prices likely increased slightly during the month, supported by a trend-like increase in food away from home prices and we expect a moderate increase in food at home prices, the other subcomponent of food prices. We expect that CPI’s energy prices overall likely rebounded during November, primarily driven by a surge in retail gasoline prices. Altogether, we expect a 0.402% m-o-m increase in headline CPI inflation, corresponding to a 2.2% rate on 12-month basis. Our forecast for CPI NSA is 246.716.”