CAD: Busy week with OPEC and GDP data in focus - ING

Analysts at ING suggest that 3Q Canadian GDP (Fri) is the highlight of the Canadian domestic calendar and after the large negative surprises in Sep trade and retail sales data last week, the risks are tilted to the downside.

Key Quotes

“This will put a reality check on the Canadian growth story from earlier this year - which in part was down to base effects - as opposed to a massively overheating economy. It's therefore no surprise to see the CAD OIS curve pricing in little prospects of a Jan-2018 BoC rate hike (33%). The risks are still that the curve flattens further, though in the absence of a string of disappointing data releases - the repricing in the Canadian 2-year swap rates looks to be largely done.”

“The OPEC meeting (Thu) will be the focal point for oil markets and reports of an extension to output cuts looks to be supporting crude. This might keep CAD supported too, with $/CAD moving to the lower end of the 1.26-1.28 range.”