Laboured NZ first negotiations of national importance - BNZ

NZ’s final votes are in and, as expected, both the Green and Labour Parties picked up an extra seat at the expense of National losing two, points out Stephen Toplis, Head of Research at BNZ.

Key Quotes

“At the margin, this increases the likelihood that New Zealand First can form a Government with the Left, as the combined total of seats in the House, under a Greens-Labour-NZ First coalition would be 63 – a much more workable majority (in a 120 seat parliament) than the 61 delivered on election night. But this is only a small shift. The final outcome still depends on whether New Zealand First decides to lean left or right.”

“There is a multitude of factors that will drive the final determination but, at the most basic level, New Zealand First has to decide whether to go with: the party whose policies are closest to its own (Labour) or the team which they find easiest to negotiate with on a day to day basis (National rather than the two party mix of Labour and Green). And overarching this decision is where can New Zealand First make the most visible difference such that it can remain a political force at the time of the 2020 election – a task made that much more difficult by the fact that current leader, Winston Peters appears increasingly unlikely to lead the party into the next plebiscite.”