Spain: Will Puigdemont declare independence? – ING

Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont will speak today in the Catalan parliament which will determine how this crisis will play out according to Steven Trypsteen Economist at ING.

Key Quotes

“Over the weekend there were manifestations against Catalan independence. In Barcelona about 350,000 people marched through the streets to show their preference for a united Spain. This shows how divided the Catalans are on the independence issue.”

“The big question is if Puigdemont will declare Catalonia independent or not. If there is a unilateral declaration of independence, it is likely that Manuel Rajoy, the Prime minister of Spain, will use Article 155 of the Spanish constitution to take back control of the autonomous region. In order to do this, Rajoy needs a majority in the senate, which his party, the Partido Popular, has. Once article 155 is invoked, the central government could introduce an interim government or call for snap elections immediately.”

“There are two other options for Puigdemont, namely that he himself calls for snap election or that he discusses a deferred declaration of independence. A deferred declaration, however, could eventually lead to snap elections as the political support in Catalonia for Puigdemont could disappear.”