EUR/USD intraday rallies seen struggling at 1.0900 – Commerzbank

In view of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, occasional rallies in spot should find strong resistance in the 1.0900 area.

Key Quotes

“Euro continues to grind lower following the markets recent key day reversal on Monday and divergence of the daily RSI. It has reached the 20 day ma at 1.0854 and while this may prompt a small rebound, we look for intraday rallies to remain capped by 1.0900. We would allow for a deeper sell off, however in order to negate upside pressure a close back below the 200 day ma at 1.0826 is required. Please note that key day reversals often signal the end of a move. While above the 200 day ma however, we remain unable to rule out upside scope to the January 2015 low at 1.1098 and the 1.1146 78.6% retracement (however this is NOT favoured)”.

“Below the 200 day ma we should see losses to the 55 day moving average at 1.0734 and the 2017 support line at 1.0650”.