20 Jan 2014
Flash: USD/JPY above pre-crisis range lows - Societe Generale
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale notes that USD/JPY is now trading above the lows of its pre-crisis lows.
Key Quotes
"Interim dips should now hold above 102.00 (concern below 101.00) to allow for a further push to test declining resistance (basis highs of 1998 and 2007) in the 106.50-75 area. Any acceleration in current gains could trigger an early push to the 112 area."
"A close below 101.00 is needed to suggest an interim consolidation has to form. The possibility of a broader correction ought be addressed but is not seen as a major risk. A structural base formed in 2011. The sharp rally into H1 2013 is therefore seen as an initial leg of a larger series of gains for USD/JPY."
"The current rally has taken USD/JPY above its pre-crisis range lows as well as 38.2% of the range of the past 20 years (103.00-25). This opens potential for further gains, through declining resistance (106’s), towards 111.50-112.00 (50% of past 20 years’ range) and potentially the highs of mid-2000’s (120-124)."
"Slippage below 101 could suggest a return to a broader consolidation – but not a reversal - before USD/JPY can develop a more constructive rally."
Key Quotes
"Interim dips should now hold above 102.00 (concern below 101.00) to allow for a further push to test declining resistance (basis highs of 1998 and 2007) in the 106.50-75 area. Any acceleration in current gains could trigger an early push to the 112 area."
"A close below 101.00 is needed to suggest an interim consolidation has to form. The possibility of a broader correction ought be addressed but is not seen as a major risk. A structural base formed in 2011. The sharp rally into H1 2013 is therefore seen as an initial leg of a larger series of gains for USD/JPY."
"The current rally has taken USD/JPY above its pre-crisis range lows as well as 38.2% of the range of the past 20 years (103.00-25). This opens potential for further gains, through declining resistance (106’s), towards 111.50-112.00 (50% of past 20 years’ range) and potentially the highs of mid-2000’s (120-124)."
"Slippage below 101 could suggest a return to a broader consolidation – but not a reversal - before USD/JPY can develop a more constructive rally."