20 Jan 2014
Flash: AUD more vulnerable to a China's GDP downside surprise - Westpac
FXstreet.com (Bali) - China’s Q4 GDP data looms large over the global calendar, notes Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac.
Key Quotes
"The median forecast is for a downtick in the growth pace to 7.6% y/y from 7.7%, with most forecasts clustered around 7.5-7.7%, with a slight skew to the topside."
"The tight range is warranted by a check of the past 4 releases – 3 of the 4 were either bang on the Bloomberg median or within 0.1ppt."
"Only the Q1 2013 disappointment missed by more, -0.3ppt. AUD is likely to react more to any downside surprise than upside. The breakdown will be probed by economists but ignored by AUD."
Key Quotes
"The median forecast is for a downtick in the growth pace to 7.6% y/y from 7.7%, with most forecasts clustered around 7.5-7.7%, with a slight skew to the topside."
"The tight range is warranted by a check of the past 4 releases – 3 of the 4 were either bang on the Bloomberg median or within 0.1ppt."
"Only the Q1 2013 disappointment missed by more, -0.3ppt. AUD is likely to react more to any downside surprise than upside. The breakdown will be probed by economists but ignored by AUD."