Australia: Long-term decline in business investment should be winding down - BBH

According to the analysts at BBH, with rising terms of trade, the long-term decline in business investment in Australia should be winding down.  

Key Quotes

“With a few exceptions, capex has been contracting since the second half of 2012. The 20-quarter average (five years) fell into negative territory in Q2 16.  The decline in the eight-quarter average (two years) has accelerated to stand at minus 4.3%.  It has been negative since Q1 15. The median forecast is for a 0.5% decline in Q4 16 after a 4% decline in Q3 16.  A weaker report could fan speculation of a rate cut in Q2 and reinforce the cap for the Australian dollar near $0.7700.”