Aussie GDP: what to expect in AUD/USD?

Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7459, up 0.01% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7464 and low at 0.7457.

AUD/USD has been testing and failing at the key resistance at $0.7489 (Fibonacci 38.2% on November debasement). The RBA resulted in a weaker Aussie when it left its cash rate target unchanged at the record low of 1.50%. The accompanying statement explained that even though the unemployment rate has improved this year, "labour market indicators continue to be mixed" while part-time unemployment remains significant. For today, we have the GDP data for Q3 which is expected to have contracted (-0.1% median estimate) in Q3 as net exports subtract and domestic demand declines and the Aussie is in a neutral state ahead of the data between 0.7370 and 0.7500 following the US dollar’s rebound overnight.

AUD/USD 1-3 month: 

Analysts at Westpac offered the Aussie in a three-month outlook, "The US dollar has had an impressive rise since the US election and has potential to rise further during the months ahead, not least because the Fed will probably hike in December. Against that, coal and iron ore are more likely to sustain their dramatic rises during the months ahead. We target 0.73." 

AUD/USD levels

AUD/USD still rangebound, likely between 0.7350/0.7550 – UOB

With Q3 GDP expected to show a 2.5% growth in the three months to September, below previous 3.3%, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that a reading below expected, could drag the pair below the 0.7400 mark, opening doors for a retest of November's low around 0.7300.

"Technically, the 4 hours chart shows that the price is standing above a bearish 20 SMA, while the Momentum indicator has lost upward strength within positive territory, but the RSI indicator turned south around 47, not enough to confirm a bearish extension, but leaning the scale towards the downside," added Valeria Bednarik.

With spot trading at 0.7460, we can see next resistance ahead at 0.7462 (Daily Classic PP), 0.7464 (Daily High), 0.7478 (Daily 20 SMA), 0.7483 (Weekly High) and 0.7485 (Yesterday's High). Support below can be found at 0.7459 (Daily Open), 0.7457 (Daily Low), 0.7454 (Hourly 20 EMA), 0.7441 (Hourly 200 SMA) and 0.7440 (Weekly Classic PP).