Canada: Retail sales likely rose 0.6% in September – BMO CM

Benjamin Reitzes, Senior Economist at BMO Capital Markets, suggests that Canada’s retail sales likely rose 0.6% in September, with gains in auto sales and at gas stations (thanks to higher pump prices) driving the first headline increase in five months.

Key Quotes

“Underlying sales are facing a more challenging backdrop, as households deal with elevated debt levels and as the tax on foreign buyers weighs on housing activity in the Vancouver region. Core sales look to be up modestly, keeping annual growth around 3%. We’ve yet to see clear evidence that the enhanced child benefits program (which took effect in July) has been supportive of sales, but we’ll be looking out for firmer underlying activity again in September. Goods prices were up only slightly in September, suggesting retail volumes will see a decent gain.”