CFTC Speculative Positioning: surprises in Trump Dollar positioning here - ANZ

Analysts at ANZ offered the positioning data that is for the week ending 15 November 2016.

Key Quotes:

"This is the first CFTC data to capture changes in leverage fund positioning following the 8 November US Presidential election. Surprisingly, despite the strong rally in the DXY Index, changes in USD positioning were marginal. Funds added a mere USD0.02bn to take their overall net long position to USD22bn. This suggests the leveraged fund community largely missed out on the dollar rally.

Funds reduced their net short positions versus EUR, GBP, and CHF. USD was sold most against the EUR as leveraged funds reduced their net EUR shorts by USD1.8bn to USD17.7bn (see Figure 5 in PDF). They also pared back on their net GBP and CHF shorts by USD1.3bn and USD0.1bn respectively. The upcoming UK budget on 23 November will reveal whether the paring back of GBP shorts was justified.

Meanwhile, funds reduced their JPY net long positions for the third consecutive week. The USD1.9bn reduction in overall net long JPY positions to USD0.6bn is not surprising given the weakening in the yen during the week.

Commodity currencies saw net selling totalling USD1.3bn. Leveraged funds reduced USD0.8bn from their net AUD longs to USD3.3bn, the lowest in three weeks (see Figure 10 in PDF). Funds also reduced their net NZD longs by USD0.1bn and added USD0.3bn to their net CAD shorts.

Despite the sell-off in MXN, funds reduced their net MXN short positions by USD0.2bn to USD1.1bn, the lowest since August 2016. Meanwhile, both BRL and RUB were sold against the USD this week.

Despite the rise in US bond yields, funds reduced their net short 10Y UST contracts to 15.8k from 69.1k previously, likely due to profit taking.

Gold net long contracts were reduced, but copper contracts rose to their highest level since 2003."