US durable goods: Expect a much weaker than consensus release – RBC CM

Adam Cole, Research Analyst at RBC Capital Markets, suggests that today’s August durable goods orders are the week’s only first-tier US data.

Key Quotes

“Our economists expect a much weaker than consensus release on both a headline and core basis (RBC -2.0% m/m; consensus -0.5%). The industrial side of the economy has been surprisingly soft and seems likely to remain so. The latest Philly and Empire both printed well below breakeven in ISM-terms. This, coupled with softer Boeing orders, suggests that headline durable goods should be quite soft (after a very firm print last month). The weaker manufacturing tone is also consistent with a decline in the capex proxy (RBC -1.5% m/m; consensus -0.1%).”