USD/JPY: FOMC minutes give green light to bears, testing 100 handle

USD/JPY has scored a daily low o the FOMC minutes that come in stark contrast to the previous statement.

USD/JPY has been as low as 100.03 and unable to recover after the FOMC minutes outlined a number of areas still of concern to some members making for a mixed outlook from the Fed. Markets have discounted a rate hike as soon as September as a result and the dollar is offered as a consequence.

The Fed funds rate was left at between 0.25% to 0.50% in the related meeting and it looks set to stay that way for the foreseeable future enabling a rally on Wall Street and was in stark contrast to the back-drop of poor data in some key areas of the economy and a weaker dollar.

The statement, "Near term risks to economic outlook have diminished," comes in stark contrast to the minutes that have shown that voters agreed to wait for more data to gauge economy while also showing that some Brexit medium and long-term risks exist from abroad. Most notably,  the FOMC were also divided on whether job-gain pace worrisome.

How volatile has USD/JPY been?

On the hourly USD/JPY chart, ATR (14) is presently at 21 pips, while 2-Standard Deviation Volatility Bandwidth is shrinking and currently 94 pips.
On a daily chart, 2-Standard Deviation Volatility Bandwidth is expanding at 835 pips. Over the past four weeks, 21 pips has been the average movement for the current session. Following the four week period average, today’s most volatile hour was between 3:00-4:00 GMT which has an average movement of 47 pips.

What price levels and patterns have to be considered?

Current price is 100.12, with resistance ahead at 100.31 (Daily Open), 100.31 (Monthly Low), 100.31 (Weekly Low), 100.31 (Annual Low) and 100.31 (YTD Low). Next support to the downside can be found at 100.04 (Daily Low), 99.75 (Weekly Classic S2), 99.54 (Yesterday's Low), 99.47 (Daily Classic S1) and 98.66 (Weekly Classic S3).