US Q3 data more important from a policy point of view than Q2 data - BBH

Research Team at BBH, suggests that the North American session features S&P Case-Shiller house prices for May, which are expected to have ticked up slightly and the June new home sales reports, where a small increase is anticipated after a 6% fall in May. 

Key Quotes

“The first estimate of Q2 GDP is out on July 29.  The Bloomberg median of 2.6% is a little above the NY and Atlanta Feds’ GDP tracking models. 

Barring a shocking Fed hike tomorrow, Q3 data is more important from a policy point of view than Q2 data.  The Richmond July manufacturing survey hardly has heft, though we note that much stronger than expected recovery in the Dallas Fed manufacturing index yesterday plays on ideas that the US belt is basing for recovery.  Markit’s preliminary service PMI for July is also on tap, along with the Conference Board’s measure of July‘s consumer confidence.”