UK: Still many unanswered questions left – Danske Bank

Mikael Olai Milhøj, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, lists down few of the important questions after the recently concluded Brexit voting.

Key Quotes

Is the referendum result legally binding?

− In theory, the EU referendum is only advisory but in practice the result are likely to have implications for what happens next. But we cannot rule out anything and uncertainties are likely to prevail for some time.

Will PM David Cameron continue as PM?

− Cameron could choose to resign himself (although he has stated otherwise).

− 15% of 330 Conservative MPs can trigger a no confidence vote in David Cameron. Iain Duncan Smith lost the party leadership this way in 2003. A simple majority among Conservative MPs is needed to win the vote.

− That said, more than 80 Eurosceptic Conservative MPs (including cabinet ministers and Boris Johnson) have signed a letter urging Cameron to remain as Prime Minister.

− We already know Cameron will not run for re-election in 2020 so a new Conservative leader will have to be elected eventually.

When will the UK trigger Article50?

− Cameron has said he would trigger Article 50 ‘immediately’ but it is possible that clarity of who the PM is and the UK’s stance in the negotiations would have to be in place first.

− Also, the referendum result can be legally challenged over the next six weeks - will UK politicians have to wait?

− If Cameron stays as PM, how is the ‘leave’ side (Michael Gove/Boris Johnson/Theresa May) going to be involved in the withdrawal negotiations?”