4 Dec 2013
Australian GDP next: Impact on the AUD/USD
FXstreet.com (Bali) - The AUD/USD has been snapped back up towards its range top of 0.9130/40 following faiure to extend losses on Tuesday, and ahead of the Australian GDP data at 00.30 GMT.
Beware Australian GDP upgraded
Recent positive data out of Australia have spurred optimism that the GDP number may come above expectations today - mainly due to net exports from yesterday - , a double-edged sword for the interest of the Australian Dollar. On one hand, if the upgraded expectations materialize, the currency may be given a much needed boost, on the other hand, however, it means that the market have likely set a higher psychological target than the 0.7% median forecast - from Bloomberg -. For example, Reuters now says it expects a GDP of 0.8% in Q3.
AUD/USD potential reaction
The slight upgrade in the Australian GDP means that risk for the AUD are skewed to the downside unless the number comes at +0.8% or above. While a result of 0.7% may still keep the currency in range mode, especially ahead of risk events in the US - labour data this week, including NFP - , a result below 0.5% is needed to make some serious damage to the pair again and threaten 0.91 down to 0.9050/60. On the other hand, if we get a GDP of 0.8% or above, expect further short squeeze testing 0.9160 offers - Dec 2 swing high -, with a break higher opening up 0.92 - Nov 26 swing high -. Market sources inform that topside stops are found above 0.9175.
Beware Australian GDP upgraded
Recent positive data out of Australia have spurred optimism that the GDP number may come above expectations today - mainly due to net exports from yesterday - , a double-edged sword for the interest of the Australian Dollar. On one hand, if the upgraded expectations materialize, the currency may be given a much needed boost, on the other hand, however, it means that the market have likely set a higher psychological target than the 0.7% median forecast - from Bloomberg -. For example, Reuters now says it expects a GDP of 0.8% in Q3.
AUD/USD potential reaction
The slight upgrade in the Australian GDP means that risk for the AUD are skewed to the downside unless the number comes at +0.8% or above. While a result of 0.7% may still keep the currency in range mode, especially ahead of risk events in the US - labour data this week, including NFP - , a result below 0.5% is needed to make some serious damage to the pair again and threaten 0.91 down to 0.9050/60. On the other hand, if we get a GDP of 0.8% or above, expect further short squeeze testing 0.9160 offers - Dec 2 swing high -, with a break higher opening up 0.92 - Nov 26 swing high -. Market sources inform that topside stops are found above 0.9175.