US: All eyes on revision to Q1 GDP figures - BBH

Research Team at BBH, suggests that in the US data includes a revision to Q1 GDP, which will include an estimate for Q1 corporate profits for the first time, and University of Michigan's final May reading of consumer sentiment. 

Key Quotes

“Although there are still those, who argue that the US is headed for a recession, and may even see a fall in corporate profits as another tell, GDP numbers are strengthening.  Q1 GDP is likely to be revised up from the 0.5% initial estimate to something closer to 1.0%.  It is still poor, just not as poor, and it underscores unreliability of the initial estimate.

Meanwhile, more important than the past Q1 is the current Q2.  Estimates for growth have been increasing.  The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker now stands at 2.9% SAAR.  Private investment could be a small contributor rather than a drag on growth, and net exports may be less of a drag, according to the data released in recent days.  Next week’s employment data are the focus, but strike activity may obscure the trends while consumption data including April PCE and May auto sales may be ultimately more important.”