US: No signs of broad-based labor market deterioration – Deutsche Bank

Research Team at Deutsche Bank, suggests that yesterday’s data release that appeared to garner most attention was the initial jobless claims print in the US.

Key Quotes

“Claims were reported as climbing 20k last week to 294k (vs. 270k expected) which is the highest level since February last year. Our US economists noted however that some caution is warranted though as it appears that the entire increase was attributable to the state of New York.

Indeed claims in NY were up 23k last week and historical data shows that this jump could be driven by seasonal issues. There has been similar evidence of such in 2014 and 2011 and claims then reverted back to trend the following week. Despite claims being up on three consecutive weeks now, there’s still yet to be any sign of broad-based deterioration. Meanwhile, the other data in the US yesterday was the import price index which was recorded as increasing +0.3% mom (vs. +0.6% expected).”