6 May 2016
US: April jobs report in the limelight - BBH
Research Team at BBH, suggests that the highlight of the North American session today will be the April jobs report.
Key Quotes
“Bloomberg median forecast is 200k vs. 215k in March. We note that the ADP estimate disappointed, but the jobs component of the service ISM, where the headline rose to four-month highs, reached its highest level in a year. Initial jobless claims have been trending lower and the four-week moving average, used to smooth out of the noise in this high frequency series, stands near its lowest level since the early 1970s.
However, we warn that the importance of the employment data may be lessening. The continued recovery of the labor market may be necessary but not sufficient to prompt the Fed to move. The April FOMC statement acknowledged the improvement but cautioned that job growth was not lifting consumption, which drives the economy. That said, the strong April auto sales suggest the US consumer may be returning in Q2.”
Key Quotes
“Bloomberg median forecast is 200k vs. 215k in March. We note that the ADP estimate disappointed, but the jobs component of the service ISM, where the headline rose to four-month highs, reached its highest level in a year. Initial jobless claims have been trending lower and the four-week moving average, used to smooth out of the noise in this high frequency series, stands near its lowest level since the early 1970s.
However, we warn that the importance of the employment data may be lessening. The continued recovery of the labor market may be necessary but not sufficient to prompt the Fed to move. The April FOMC statement acknowledged the improvement but cautioned that job growth was not lifting consumption, which drives the economy. That said, the strong April auto sales suggest the US consumer may be returning in Q2.”