US: All eyes on CPI and jobless claims data – Rabobank

Philip Marey, Senior US Strategist at Rabobank, suggests that in the US, the jobless claims are expected to confirm that the labor market remains on track.

Key Quotes

“While a modest increase in initial jobless claims is expected according to the Bloomberg consensus, the current levels are below pre-crisis values. The continued reduction of labor market slack is crucial for the Fed’s confidence in the inflation outlook.

The US CPI data for March will be released at the same time. The Bloomberg consensus is a modest acceleration to 1.1% headline inflation in year-on-year terms and core inflation unchanged at 2.3%. While the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is the PCE deflator, the CPI does play a role in the discussions in the FOMC. What’s more, it is published much earlier than the PCE, which is scheduled for the 29th.”