29 Mar 2016
Chinese data unlikely to boost AUD and CAD - BNPP
Research Team at BNP Paribas, suggests that in China, they expect both the official and the Caixin/Markit PMIs to tick higher from their respective readings of 49 and 48 on Friday.
Key Quotes
“The unwinding of a seasonal drag from the Lunar New Year and a strong recovery in the property market all argue in favour of some firming in the numbers.
We do not see a significant boost for the G10 commodity exporter currencies however as we see a larger threat from a repricing of Fed expectations, that could negatively impact the risk environment, and domestic central bank resistance to a tightening in financial conditions via further currency gains.
Our Australian economist believes the RBA could be making its easing bias more explicit to counter the recent tightening in financial conditions. A BoC policymaker will be speaking in mid-week and we see risk that the rhetoric turns more dovish again after the government released its budget earlier this month. We expect AUD and CAD to underperform going forward.”
Key Quotes
“The unwinding of a seasonal drag from the Lunar New Year and a strong recovery in the property market all argue in favour of some firming in the numbers.
We do not see a significant boost for the G10 commodity exporter currencies however as we see a larger threat from a repricing of Fed expectations, that could negatively impact the risk environment, and domestic central bank resistance to a tightening in financial conditions via further currency gains.
Our Australian economist believes the RBA could be making its easing bias more explicit to counter the recent tightening in financial conditions. A BoC policymaker will be speaking in mid-week and we see risk that the rhetoric turns more dovish again after the government released its budget earlier this month. We expect AUD and CAD to underperform going forward.”