14 Mar 2016
EM: The Central bank fest – TDS
Cristian Maggio, Head of Emerging Markets Strategy at TDS, notes that the week has started off quietly, with not much on calendar for today, but lots of rate decisions for later this week.
Key Quotes
“Chinese economic data continued to show deceleration in February, while the CPI showed a food price driven upside surprise last week.
Looking forward, the top event is Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, which at this point is the only real common thread of market performance. The implied probability of a hike is currently 5%, while 95% of the market is adamant about the Fed’s decision to hold, based on IOS. A rate hike in the US becomes a higher likelihood scenario only around mid-year, when probabilities rise to near 50%, and exceed 55% for the July meeting. We continue to call for two hikes this year, in June and December, which means that the way the market is positioned exposes it to the risk of a hawkish surprise on Wednesday.
EM investors are no less exposed. Some of the moves that have no apparent reason may in fact be related to market positioning ahead of the Fed and local central bank announcements.”
Key Quotes
“Chinese economic data continued to show deceleration in February, while the CPI showed a food price driven upside surprise last week.
Looking forward, the top event is Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, which at this point is the only real common thread of market performance. The implied probability of a hike is currently 5%, while 95% of the market is adamant about the Fed’s decision to hold, based on IOS. A rate hike in the US becomes a higher likelihood scenario only around mid-year, when probabilities rise to near 50%, and exceed 55% for the July meeting. We continue to call for two hikes this year, in June and December, which means that the way the market is positioned exposes it to the risk of a hawkish surprise on Wednesday.
EM investors are no less exposed. Some of the moves that have no apparent reason may in fact be related to market positioning ahead of the Fed and local central bank announcements.”