14 Mar 2016
EUR/USD forecast: focus now on the Fed – Commerzbank and Danske Bank
Today’s decline in the pair seems to have found support in the boundaries of 1.1110, coming down from recent peaks near 1.1220.
Allan von Mehren, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank, suggested “we generally see the ECB’s shift from targeting the exchange rate to targeting the credit/bank lending channel as positive for risky assets, but bullish for the EUR against other low yielding currencies such as the USD, GBP and JPY. We continue to see EUR/USD in a 1.05-1.15 range where a more hawkish Fed should cap the top side. However, the ECB exiting the currency war supports our long held view that EUR/USD will head substantially higher in 2016, eventually breaking the 1.15 level”.
Additionally, Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, noted the pair’s “sharp post ECB drop took it to 1.0822 before it reversed its trend and even more brutally shot up to the 1.1200 region. This up surge led us to neutralize our weekly outlook and means that the eight month resistance line at 1.1315 and also the February high at 1.1377 are back in the picture. Further up lurk the September and October highs at 1.1460/95”.
Allan von Mehren, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank, suggested “we generally see the ECB’s shift from targeting the exchange rate to targeting the credit/bank lending channel as positive for risky assets, but bullish for the EUR against other low yielding currencies such as the USD, GBP and JPY. We continue to see EUR/USD in a 1.05-1.15 range where a more hawkish Fed should cap the top side. However, the ECB exiting the currency war supports our long held view that EUR/USD will head substantially higher in 2016, eventually breaking the 1.15 level”.
Additionally, Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, noted the pair’s “sharp post ECB drop took it to 1.0822 before it reversed its trend and even more brutally shot up to the 1.1200 region. This up surge led us to neutralize our weekly outlook and means that the eight month resistance line at 1.1315 and also the February high at 1.1377 are back in the picture. Further up lurk the September and October highs at 1.1460/95”.